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We have seen above how the principal may experience an adverse selection problem because he lacks the information to discriminate amongst types of agents and make them distinct offers Adverse selection occurs when some type of agent nds it pro table to choose the offer that was intended for another type of agent We have seen that when the goal of the principal is to make agents choose actions that maximize social welfare, the effect of adverse selection is to force the principal to make a larger payment than he would if he had full information A consequence of adverse selection is that there may be no prices that a regulator can prescribe to a rm such that the rm can recover its cost More generally, adverse selection can destroy a market, as we see in the following example Example 13.

Data for Misra1a Problem y 10.070 14.730 17.940 23.930 29.610 35.180 40.020 x 77.60 114.90 141.10 190.80 239.90 289.00 332.80 Obs. 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 y 44.820 50.760 55.050 61.010 66.400 75.470 81.780 x 378.40 434.80 477.30 536.80 593.10 689.10 760.00

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1 (A market for used cars) Consider a market for used cars, in which the principal (the buyer of a car) can check the quality of the car only after he has purchased it from the agent (the seller) Suppose that cars have qualities uniformly distributed on [0; 1], and that a seller of a car of quality x is willing to sell only if the offered price s exceeds x, which is perhaps an amount he owes on a loan and must repay A buyer of a car of quality x values it at ux/ D 3x=2 Since the buyer cannot observe the quality of a car before making an offer, he must make the same offer for every car His problem is to maximize his net bene t He does this by choosing his offer s to maximize E x [u.

x/ s j x s], where the expectation over the random variable x is conditioned by the participation constraint x s For a given s, the expected quality of a purchased car is s=2, and so the buyer must choose s to maximize 3s=4 s, giving s D 0 Thus no cars are sold Note that, if the quality of a car is in the interval [2s=3; s], then both buyer and seller can bene t from a transaction If the quality of a car is in the interval [0; 2s=3] then a transaction pro ts the seller, but not the buyer The average quality of a car is s=2, which is less than the lowest acceptable level of 2s=3 for which the buyer would wish to participate This adverse selection phenomenon causes market breakdown.

cated or added to the project. For example, the milestones in Figure 5.11 show that the Application Logic has fallen behind and missed the April 1 design milestone. However, the progress for the May 1 deadline is on schedule, and the manager may be able to shift some of the effort from this on-schedule task to the behind-schedule task. If the manager does this early and carefully enough, it might be possible to make both milestones by the deadline. 5.15 ACRONYMS Adjusted function points Cost drivers Constructive cost model Commercial off-the-shelf components Database administrator Estimate quality factor Function point analysis Thousands of source lines of code Person months Person years Quality assurance Scale drivers Source lines of code Software development plan Software project management plan Number of months estimated for software development Uni ed Modeling Language Work breakdown structure

Although there are social welfare gains to be made by matching some pairs of buyers and sellers, the lack of information makes such interaction impossible Of course, if the distribution of the quality were such that the average quality were greater than 2s=3, then the market would not break down, and there would be a positive value of s that it would be optimal for a buyer to bid The problem is that the buyer is unable to distinguish between high and low quality cars If he were able to obtain information about the quality of a car he could adjust his bid appropriately Hence, it bene ts both the seller and the buyer if the quality can be signalled The seller could allow the buyer to take the car for a test drive, or to have the car checked by a mechanic.

As a simple illustration, suppose the buyer can check whether the quality of a car is more or less than 1=2 It is easy to see that such a simple signal of high or low quality is enough to create a stable market in which both sellers and buyers pro t For instance, offering s D 3=4, but only for cars with x > 1=2 is a policy that gives the buyer an average pro t of 3=16 In fact, the optimal choice of s is s D 1=2 C for an arbitrarily small Now the buyer has nearly full information as he knows the actual quality of any car he purchases must lie in the interval [1=2; 1=2 C ] Similar to the above example, let us consider a model of an ISP who sells Internet connectivity Example 13.

if(myPosition = 1 and Low < Lowest(Low[1],20) )then begin value1 = MinList((Lowest(low[1],20)),Open); {Check for a gap open} myProfit = value1 - myEntryPrice; {Calculate our trade profit/loss} myPosition = 0; end;

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