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It is always a good idea to place any technology or system into some sort of context, so that industry practitioners can keep one eye on the significance of what they are doing. Such perspective informs good judgment. At the time of writing, streaming media is not all that significant, in the grand scheme of things. There are many other industries and existing media distribution systems that command greater viewership and a larger share of global gross domestic product. However, as we have seen throughout this book, we have so far only experienced the tip of the iceberg. Streaming media has the potential to be a significant social force and a large industry, if not a huge one. It could be the medium of choice for the new century. If the technologies required are developed, as it seems they will be, and if the commercial and other problems are solved, as might happen, then the medium could, indeed, replace television, over time. Streaming media could also be the driver of consumer demand for third-generation wireless mobile services and for ever-faster optical networks. Streaming media technologies could underpin many of the next waves of killer applications. While streaming media may not directly provide a cure for cancer or solve world hunger, it will perhaps make significant contributions to progress in solving these problems. Its societal impact, like that of television and film, is likely to far exceed the monetary value of the streaming media industry. This section briefly examines the ways in which the media will be significant.

This section contains some extrapolations of samples of current market size, to guesstimate future market size. The data are, therefore, subject to all the usual limitations of crystal balls. However, data like these are often good for performing back of the envelope calculations, in order to gain an order-of-magnitude appreciation of the scale of the industry. Make of these data points what you will. In November 2001, the number of broadband users in the US reached 21 million, representing 20% of the 106 million Internet users in the US. It is estimated that the number of World Wide Web users will reach 320 million in 2002, accessing the Internet using some 515 million devices.

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Risk aversion means that a rational investor prefers less risk to more risk. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. This common expression along with, A safe dollar is worth more than a risky dollar, reflects risk aversion. Finance theory is based upon the assumption that investors exhibit risk-averse behavior. To a risk-averse investor, the pain of losing a dollar is greater than the pleasure of winning a dollar. A risk-averse investor does not avoid risk at all cost. She may gamble with small percentages of her wealth in hopes of attaining a significant but unlikely payoff. She can make the occasional trip to Las Vegas or Atlantic City and feed the quarter slot machines or take a seat at the two-dollar blackjack table. She also may participate in the Power Ball lottery in hopes of striking it big, even though she knows that the odds are greatly against her. With a small portion of her assets, she even may have purchased Internet stocks at their height in hopes of latching onto the next Microsoft or Dell. For the principle of risk aversion to hold, it s not necessary for all investors to make intelligent risk/return decisions at all times only

Eli Lilly is one of the world s leading pharmaceutical companies. With $11 billion in revenues, it markets its products in 159 countries and has 43,000 employees. The Indianapolis-based company creates pharmaceutical products that treat a broad range of ailments, including depression, schizophrenia, cancer, and osteoporosis. Lilly is committed to product innovation, spending about 19 percent of its annual revenue, or $2 billion, on research and development every year. The high risk and enormous expense of inventing, developing, and testing pharmaceutical products mean that companies in the industry often depend on just one or two flagship products for the bulk of their income. When the patent for those products expires, the financial consequences can be profound. Lilly suffered a potentially devastating setback when a judge unexpectedly ruled in 2000 that the company s patent on Prozac, a classic blockbuster that made up over 20 percent of sales, would Lilly spends about 19 expire in 2001 three years earlier than expected. Within six months, generic com- percent of its annual petitors had siphoned off more than half of revenue on R&D. Prozac s sales.

By 2004, there are projected to be 90 million broadband homes globally, rising to perhaps 200 million by 2006. Figure 5.1 illustrates the number of household Internet connections, worldwide.

2006 2005 2004 2003

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